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Tools, Trends & Seasonality

BFCM 2025 Postmortem: What AI Changed and What Still Broke

AgentMark TeamDecember 18, 20257 min read

BFCM is not a campaign. It's a systems test.

BFCM 2025 made the trajectory obvious: AI is increasingly part of shopping discovery, but the same operational failures still decide who wins.

What happened in BFCM 2025 (numbers worth anchoring on)

  • Adobe reported U.S. consumers spent $257.8B online from Nov 1 to Dec 31, 2025 (+6.8% YoY)
  • Cyber Week (Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday) delivered $44.2B online (+7.7% YoY)
  • Cyber Monday hit $14.25B (+7.1% YoY), Black Friday $11.8B (+9.1% YoY)
  • Mobile accounted for 56.4% of online transactions for the season
  • BNPL hit a $20B milestone for the season
  • Traffic from generative AI tools increased 693.4% YoY
  • What AI changed

    1) Discovery is increasingly conversational

    Shoppers are using AI assistants as deal finders and product researchers.

    Implication: Offers and product data matter more. Your "ad" is increasingly the offer unit surfaced inside AI experiences.

    2) Shopping surfaces are shifting

    This trend lines up with Google pushing shopping into Gemini and AI Search via retailer partnerships.

    Implication: You need to invest in the storefront inputs: feeds, landing pages, inventory truth, offer clarity.

    What still broke (because ops is ops)

    1) Tracking integrity

    If your conversion signal breaks, automation optimizes garbage, faster.

    2) Pacing drift under volatility

    Q4 punishes weekly monitoring. Pacing needs daily guardrails.

    3) Reporting lag and narrative debt

    When the client is anxious, dashboards don't calm them. Clear explanations do.

    The BFCM 2026 agency runbook

    Copy/paste this and run it.

    Two weeks before

  • Validate tracking end-to-end
  • Lock UTMs and naming conventions
  • Prep promo landing pages and mobile speed checks
  • Build day-by-day pacing plan
  • Queue creative refresh schedule
  • 48 hours before

  • Run QA preflight (pass/fail + evidence)
  • Confirm budgets, caps, dates, conversion events
  • Confirm alert channels and owners
  • Confirm coverage plan
  • During Cyber Week

  • Daily pacing guardrails with spend-at-risk
  • Tracking health checks with baselines
  • Fatigue triggers for creative refresh
  • Incident logging: what happened, when noticed, impact, fix
  • Week after

  • Postmortem: at-risk spend, time-to-notice, missed checks
  • Convert lessons into new guardrails

  • FAQ

    What's the single biggest lever for BFCM success?

    Operational coverage. Most failures are preventable.

    What changed most due to AI?

    Discovery surfaces. You need stronger storefront inputs: offers, feeds, landing pages.

    Ready to see AgentMark in action?

    Book a demo and see how AI agents can transform your ad operations.